I have been for the last week or so trying to pull all the news together and come up with a realistic delegate count myself. Recently I came across www.thereal2012delegatecount.com and have to say their counts are DAMN NEAR close to what I have on paper, all delegates below have been awarded, this is more fact than anything delegate counts from the MSM news outlets. I know a lot of people are going to say Ron Paul has more delegates than what is listed below, but this is as of today, delegates not awarded yet are listed as well.
The real delegate counts right now are estimated, the most accurate count according to district and state convention outcomes in most states are:
Romney: 697
Santorum: 238
Ron Paul: 148
Gingrich: 125
Unknown/Unbound: 274
Now keep in mind some of Santorum’s delegates become *Unbound* in most states because he is no longer running, if Ron Paul supporters held any of those delegate spots, or some decide not to attend and alternatives take their spots, Most likely Ron Paul will be benefit the most. Also the Unknown/Unbound delegates could go anywhere, and this is assuming at the national convention, delegates who are bound, abide to the rules to vote how they were elected first round(which there is no real way to make sure this happens, its more on good faith), so we could say that some of the Unknown/Unbound/Romney/Santorum delegates COULD vote for Ron Paul if they got the delegate spots and do not abide by the rules of the convention. Only a few people doing this could cost Romney his 1144 magic number.
Delegates still at large: 770
So let’s say Romney has GUARANTEED 600 votes right now, he needs to win 544(70%) of the delegates left(and I don’t mean winning the popular vote, I mean DELEGATES) to “wrap up the nomination” and not worry about a Ron Paul “second round takeover”. Only 3 states coming up are “winner take all”. It will be a very interesting MAY/JUNE for sure!
Comment away!!
