The Nevada Caucuses on Feb. 4th, 2012 , the 5th state to hold a primary/caucus turned out to be a big question mark instead of a clear second win for Romney(although the media may beg to differ). Caucuses ran most of the day through about 7pm with an 8-9pm ‘special’ caucus in most areas to accommodate those who had “religious obligations” during the normal caucus times. The Nevada caucus seemed to have been going as normal with a lighter turnout than normal throughout the day. It wasn’t until the start of the ‘special’ caucuses did things start to go astray.
According to the GOP the ‘special’ caucuses were intended to accommodate people who were Jewish who on Saturday were celebrating their ‘Sabbath’ until sun down. This is all in good faith, but what happened at the caucuses turned out to be a complete and utter disaster in my opinion. The ‘special’ caucuses turned out to bring in very large crowds of voters, from those with ‘religious obligations’, to those who had to work most of Saturday, to many people who decided to have a good dinner before they went out to caucus. It was never made clear by the GOP that these caucuses were only for those with ‘religious obligations’ most likely because this would be a form of voter discrimination, so many people in essence just decided to attend the later caucus out of convenience. But what the GOP did at these special caucuses turned out to be much worse then if they would have come out and said only Jews could attend because of their ‘Sabbath’.
When tons lined up outside these late caucuses, the GOP began to realize that a lot of the turnout seemed to be a lot larger than they had anticipated, and on top of that it also seemed that the bulk of Ron Paul supporters came out to caucus at these ‘special’ caucuses. As the GOP tried to turn people away all across Nevada because they were not their for Religious reasons, all hell broke loose. YouTube is full of videos of voters being TURNED AWAY at these ‘special’ caucuses, saying they should have came to vote earlier, or in many cases making them sign a deceleration that they were coming to caucus because they were Jewish in an attempt to turn people away. The entire night consisted of voter discrimination against anyone who was not Jewish or did not claim to be Jewish.
Many dedicated Ron Paul supporters were infuriated by this, and decided to just sign the declaration knowing this was a form of religious discrimination just to get in and voice their vote, while others who didn’t know better possibly upwards of ten thousand people decided to head home thinking they ‘missed’ their chance to vote. Yes you heard me right, I believe almost 10,000 voters were turned away at these late caucuses. You may ask why 10,000 voters? Well let’s compare the first 5 states that held their caucus/primary already and compare the results to 2008.
Iowa:
Huckabee - 40,954 - 35%
Romney - 30,021 - 25%
Thompson - 15,960 - 13%
McCain - 15,536 - 13%
Paul - 11,841 - 10%
Giuliani - 4,099 - 4%
Hunter - 506 - 0%Total votes: 118,917
2012:
Santorum - 29,839 - 25%
Romney - 29,805 - 25%
Paul - 26,036 - 21% (119.9% increase from 08′)
Gingrich - 16,163 - 13%
Perry - 12,557 - 10%
Bachmann - 6,046 - 5%
Huntsman - 739 - 1%Total votes: 121,185(+1.8% increase vs 08′)
New Hampshire:
2008:
McCain - 88,713 - 37%
Romney - 75,675 - 32%
Huckabee - 26,916 - 11%
Giuliani - 20,344 - 8%
Paul - 18,346 - 8%
Thompson - 2,955 - 1%
Hunter - 1,192 - 1%Total votes: 234,141
2012:
Romney - 97,591 - 39%
Paul - 56,872 - 23% (210% increase from 08′)
Huntsman - 41,964 - 17%
Gingrich - 23,421 - 9%
Santorum - 23,405 - 9%
Perry - 1,764 - 1%Total votes: 245,017(4.65% increase from 08′)
South Carolina:
2008:
McCain - 147,686 – 33%
Huckabee - 132,943 - 30%
Thompson - 69,651 - 16%
Romney - 68,142 - 15%
Paul - 16,154 - 4%
Giuliani - 9,557 - 2%
Hunter - 1,051 - 0%Total votes: 445,184
2012:
Gingrich - 243,172 - 40%
Romney - 167,297 - 28%
Santorum - 102,061 - 17%
Paul - 78,000 - 13% (383% increase from 08′)Total votes: 590,530(32.6% increase from 08′)
Florida:
McCain - 701,761 - 36%
Romney - 604,932 - 31%
Giuliani - 286,089 - 15%
Huckabee - 262,681 - 14%
Paul - 62,887 - 3%Total votes: 1,918,350
2012:
Romney – 775,014 – 46%
Gingrich – 533,117 – 32%
Santorum – 222,799 – 13%
Paul – 117,104 – 7% (86.2% increase from 08′)Total votes: 1,648,034(14.1% decrease from 08′)
Nevada:
2008:
Romney - 22,646 - 51%
Paul - 6,084 - 14%
McCain - 5,650 - 13%
Huckabee - 3,616 - 8%
Thompson - 3,519 - 8%
Giuliani - 1,910 - 4%
Hunter - 890 - 2%Total votes: 44,315
2012:
Romney - 16,486 - 50%
Gingrich - 6,956 - 21%
Paul - 6,175 - 19% (1.5% increase from 08′)
Santorum - 3,277 - 10%Total votes: 32,894(25.8% decrease from 08′)
Yes, only 32,894 votes out of the registered 470,000.
What we learn from the above comparison that excluding Florida, there was a steady rise in the attendance compared to 2008. Even factoring in Florida we still come away with a positive voter turnout compared to 2008. The other fascinating fact we come across is Ron Paul’s numbers compared to 2008. In every state Paul increased his voter turnout compared to 08′, In Iowa: +119.9% , In New Hampshire: +210% , In South Carolina: +383% , In Florida: +86.2% , In Nevada: +1.5% – the smallest amount, Paul only gained an additional 91 votes in Nevada compared to 08′. This seems very odd especially since Paul was running a great ground game compared to any other candidate in Nevada, a state where Paul is known to have a great deal of support, only turning 91 voters on in almost 4 years seems very, very, odd to me.
The next piece of information that made me question the entire caucus in Nevada came out of the Paul campaign. The campaign had claimed to have over over 22,000 identified caucus voters for Paul, now some of this information may have come pre/post Iowa but it is hard to believe that so many dedicated supporters would stay home. One might argue that the precincts were recently changed and many people didn’t know where to caucus or showed up to do so and were at the wrong location and just head home. Whatever the case I feel the Nevada GOP handled the entire caucus terribly, and that if they had a complete re-caucus which would never happen since the establishment’s candidate took the win, I believe the turnout and results would change drastically. If I am completely wrong, which I do admit happens from time to time because no one is perfect, I hope the Paul campaign figures out a new way to ID voters, because 6000 out of 22,000 is not turnout to be happy about, period.
Nevada GOP Chairman Amy Tarkanian resigned as of 12:01am, before they could even finish counting the ballots, or throwing them out across Clark County, Nevada. There are tons of news, opinions, and rumors flying around about the Nevada caucus. All I know is something fishy took place without a doubt in my mind. All I ask is for everyone to take this as a warning as whats to come, make sure your states caucus/primary is transparent. In fact I will be aiming to put together a push for transparency at every single precinct going forward. YOU need to step up to the plate to make sure our votes count, don’t rely on someone else, or a campaign, or an organization.
UPDATE: If you voted in the Nevada GOP Caucus and have precint totals to report, problems or incidents that occurred at your caucus please report them to the Ron Paul Campaign here: https://ronpaulnevada.wufoo.com/forms/nevada-gop-grassroots-precinct-reports/
